It would be a difficult feat to be an American adult and not be aware of the importance of the state of Florida to the 2016 presidential contest. A victory there by Hillary Clinton would make the election of Donald Trump a very, very difficult thing.
However, despite so many in the media trumpeting the lead in early voting results for Clinton, an examination of the newest and best data show the Republican candidate holding a slim advantage.
For the critical battleground state of Florida, Real Clear Politics’ polling average has Trump holding a razor thin 0.4% lead over Clinton, while the website FiveThirtyEight calculates a 55.1% likelihood of a Clinton win.
A November 8 poll of Florida voters from the Trafalgar Group indicates a four percentage point lead for Trump, 50% – 46%, with the remainder either opting for third party candidates Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or undecided. The Trafalgar Group analysis provides much additional data, which includes likely voting by age range and gender. In general, older voters and males are more likely to vote for the Republican. Interestingly, the African-American vote, which many declared would be in the low single digits for Trump, is expected to come in at around 15% for Trump.
Recent poll data from Opinion Savvy, with a sample size of 853 respondents and a 3.4% margin of error, show a two percentage point lead for Clinton, 48% – 46%, within the stated margin of error.
The well-know Quinnipiac poll has provided its data for Florida, indicating an extremely tight race between the Republican and Democrat. A 3.3% margin of error is cited for Quinnipiac, with Clinton holding a 46% – 45% lead over Trump. In a switch from the common narrative of Republican voters abandoning Trump, responses from respondents show 7% of Republicans saying they are not voting for their party’s candidate, while 10% of Democrats say the same about Clinton. As with the Trafalgar Group poll, female voters tend to prefer Clinton, while males tend to prefer Trump.
The CBS News/YouGov polling numbers show a statistical tie between Trump and Clinton, with each pulling in 45% of the Florida vote. The remaining 10% said they’d vote for Johnson, Stein, would pick someone else, or still weren’t sure.
Some of the polling outfits attempted to measure enthusiasm for the respective candidates. In two polls that collected such information, a majority of respondents stated that they thought their neighbors, friends, and family members would be voting for Donald Trump.